Texas 232026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 23rd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 23rd District House forecast currently gives Republican Brandon Herrera a 68.5% chance of defeating Democrat Katy Padilla Stout. Pollsmax projects Herrera to receive 51% of the vote compared with 49% for Stout, a projected Republican margin of 2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 23rd District House election features Democrat Katy Padilla Stout and Republican Brandon Herrera. The seat is open in 2026, giving both parties a chance to win the district's representation in the lower chamber of Congress. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 23rd congressional district by 2.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Texas seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Texas' 23rd District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.