Texas 232026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 23rd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 23rd District House forecast currently gives Republican Brandon Herrera a 82.5% chance of defeating Democrat Katy Padilla Stout. Pollsmax projects Herrera to receive 53.1% of the vote compared with 46.9% for Stout, a projected Republican margin of 6.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 23rd District House election features Democrat Katy Padilla Stout and Republican Brandon Herrera. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. This race is rated as likely Republican. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.