Texas23rd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 Texas 23rd District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Texas's 23rd congressional district House election between Democrat Katy Padilla Stout and Republican Brandon Herrera. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 Texas 23rd District House election features Democrat Katy Padilla Stout and Republican Brandon Herrera. The seat is open in 2026, giving both parties a chance to win the district's representation in the lower chamber of Congress. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 23rd congressional district by 2.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Texas seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Texas' 23rd District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.