Alaska 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Alaska Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Alaska Senate forecast currently gives Democrat Mary Peltola a 52.4% chance of defeating Republican Dan Sullivan. Pollsmax projects Peltola to receive 50.2% of the vote compared with 49.8% for Sullivan, a projected Democratic margin of 0.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Alaska Senate election features Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican Dan Sullivan. Incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan is seeking reelection to a third full term, having served in the US Senate since 2015. In 2024, Donald Trump won Alaska by 13.1%, but the election for the state's Senate seat is highly competitive in 2026. The race will test whether Sullivan can hold a Republican-leaning but politically independent state or whether Peltola can rebuild the crossover coalition that made her one of Alaska's most prominent Democrats. Alaska's Senate forecast and Senate polls will be critical to watch because the race could help determine control of the US Senate for the second half of President Trump's term.