Alaska 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Alaska Senate Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Alaska's Senate election between Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican Dan Sullivan. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.

The 2026 Alaska Senate election features Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican Dan Sullivan. Incumbent senator Dan Sullivan is seeking reelection to a third term, having served in the US Senate since 2015. In 2024, Donald Trump won Alaska by 13.1%, but the election for the state's Senate seat is a toss-up in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle. Alaska's seat will be critical in determining the balance of power in the US Senate for the second half of President Trump's term, as victory for Republicans will be key in their effort to preserve the GOP majority in the upper chamber of Congress.