Alaska 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Alaska Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Alaska Senate forecast currently gives Republican Dan Sullivan a 66.5% chance of defeating Democrat Mary Peltola. Pollsmax projects Sullivan to receive 51.2% of the vote compared with 48.8% for Peltola, a projected Republican margin of 2.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Alaska Senate election features Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican Dan Sullivan. Incumbent senator Dan Sullivan is seeking reelection to a third term, having served in the US Senate since 2015. In 2024, Donald Trump won Alaska by 13.1%, but Democrats are expected to narrowly flip the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle. Alaska's seat will be critical in determining the balance of power in the US Senate for the second half of President Trump's term, as victory for Democrats will be key in their effort to flip the upper chamber of Congress blue.