Josh Turek
DEMOCRATIC
Iowa House of Representatives (D)
2023 – Present
Iowa 2026 SENATE FORECAST
Ashley Hinson
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-IA)
2021 – Present
2026 Iowa Senate Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Iowa's Senate election between Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Iowa Senate election features Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Iowa by 13.2%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. Iowa has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Senate
- State
- Iowa
- Democratic candidate
- Josh Turek
- Republican candidate
- Ashley Hinson
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open Seat
- Forecast rating
- Lean R
- Projected vote
- 47.7% D / 52.4% R
- Projected margin
- R +4.7
- Forecast odds
- 23.5% D / 76.5% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on August 4, 2026
- Polling average
- 45.1% D / 48.0% R
- Polling average margin
- R +2.9
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on August 5, 2026
- Polls included
- 8
- Latest poll
- New York Times / Siena College — June 27, 2026