Iowa 2026 SENATE FORECAST
2026 Iowa Senate Forecast:
The Pollsmax 2026 Iowa Senate forecast currently gives Republican Ashley Hinson a 69.3% chance of defeating Democrat Josh Turek. Pollsmax projects Hinson to receive 51.6% of the vote compared with 48.4% for Turek, a projected Republican margin of 3.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.
The 2026 Iowa Senate election features Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Iowa by 13.2%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. Iowa has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Senate
- State
- Iowa
- Democratic candidate
- Josh Turek
- Republican candidate
- Ashley Hinson
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open Seat
- Forecast rating
- Lean R
- Projected vote
- 48.4% D / 51.6% R
- Projected margin
- R +3.2
- Forecast odds
- 30.7% D / 69.3% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on September 19, 2026
- Polling average
- 44.0% D / 46.0% R
- Polling average margin
- R +2.0
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on September 16, 2026
- Polls included
- 18
- Latest poll
- co/efficient (R) — September 16, 2026