Iowa 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Iowa Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Iowa Senate forecast currently gives Republican Ashley Hinson a 62.3% chance of defeating Democrat Josh Turek. Pollsmax projects Hinson to receive 51.1% of the vote compared with 49% for Turek, a projected Republican margin of 2.1 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Iowa Senate election features Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Iowa, and Republicans are favored to retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether Turek can flip a Republican-held Senate seat in a state that has trended right or whether Hinson can keep Iowa in the GOP column. Iowa's Senate forecast and Senate polls could become important if Democrats are able to expand the map and put more Republican-held seats in play.