Michigan 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST
2026 Michigan Governor Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Michigan's Governor election between Democrat Jocelyn Benson and Republican John James. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Michigan governor election features Democrat Jocelyn Benson and Republican John James. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Donald Trump won Michigan by 1.4%, but the election for the state's governorship is a toss-up in 2026. Michigan's mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters makes the statewide margin especially important in a competitive governor race. A win would be important for Democrats as they try to win a majority of governorships for the first time since 2009.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Governor
- State
- Michigan
- Democratic candidate
- Jocelyn Benson
- Republican candidate
- John James
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open Seat
- Forecast rating
- Lean D
- Projected vote
- 52.2% D / 47.8% R
- Projected margin
- D +4.4
- Forecast odds
- 72.8% D / 27.2% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on August 4, 2026
- Polling average
- 46.4% D / 40.7% R
- Polling average margin
- D +5.7
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on August 5, 2026
- Polls included
- 19
- Latest poll
- EPIC-MRA — July 31, 2026