Michigan 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Michigan Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Michigan Governor forecast currently gives Democrat Jocelyn Benson a 80.4% chance of defeating Republican John James. Pollsmax projects Benson to receive 53.1% of the vote compared with 47% for James, a projected Democratic margin of 6.1 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Michigan governor election features Democrat Jocelyn Benson and Republican John James. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Donald Trump won Michigan by 1.4%, but the election for the state's governorship is a toss-up in 2026. Michigan's mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters makes the statewide margin especially important in a competitive governor race. A win would be important for Democrats as they try to win a majority of governorships for the first time since 2009.