Florida 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST
2026 Florida Governor Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Florida's Governor election between Democrat David Jolly and Republican Byron Donalds. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Florida governor election features Democrat David Jolly and Republican Byron Donalds. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Florida by 13.1%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. Florida has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Governor
- State
- Florida
- Democratic candidate
- David Jolly
- Republican candidate
- Byron Donalds
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open Seat
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 46.6% D / 53.5% R
- Projected margin
- R +6.9
- Forecast odds
- 15.8% D / 84.2% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on August 4, 2026
- Polling average
- 39.5% D / 43.3% R
- Polling average margin
- R +3.8
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on August 5, 2026
- Polls included
- 16
- Latest poll
- University of North Florida — July 17, 2026