Florida 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Florida Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida Governor forecast currently gives Republican Byron Donalds a 81.8% chance of defeating Democrat David Jolly. Pollsmax projects Donalds to receive 53.3% of the vote compared with 46.8% for Jolly, a projected Republican margin of 6.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida governor election features Democrat David Jolly and Republican Byron Donalds. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Florida by 13.1%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. Florida has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.