Michigan 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Michigan Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Michigan Senate forecast currently gives Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a 66.1% chance of defeating Republican Mike Rogers. Pollsmax projects El-Sayed to receive 51.3% of the vote compared with 48.8% for Rogers, a projected Democratic margin of 2.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Michigan Senate election features Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Donald Trump narrowly won Michigan, but the Senate race is one of the most competitive open-seat contests of the 2026 cycle. The race will test whether El-Sayed can hold a Democratic Senate seat in a state Trump carried or whether Rogers can flip Michigan into the Republican column. Michigan's Senate forecast and Senate polls will be critical to watch because the race could help determine control of the US Senate for the second half of President Trump's term.