Michigan 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Michigan Senate Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Michigan's Senate election between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.

The 2026 Michigan Senate election features Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Donald Trump won Michigan by 1.4%, but the election for the state's Senate seat is a toss-up in 2026. Michigan's mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters makes the statewide margin especially important in a competitive Senate race. Michigan's seat will be critical in determining the balance of power in the US Senate for the second half of President Trump's term, as victory for Republicans will be key in their effort to preserve the GOP majority in the upper chamber of Congress.