Kansas 2026 SENATE FORECAST
2026 Kansas Senate Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Kansas' Senate election between Democrat Adam Hamilton and Republican Roger Marshall. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Kansas Senate election features Democrat Adam Hamilton and Republican Roger Marshall. Incumbent senator Roger Marshall is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the US Senate since 2021. In 2024, Donald Trump won Kansas by 16.1%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Senate
- State
- Kansas
- Democratic candidate
- Adam Hamilton
- Republican candidate
- Roger Marshall
- Incumbent / open seat
- Roger Marshall
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 44.3% D / 55.7% R
- Projected margin
- R +11.4
- Forecast odds
- 8.6% D / 91.4% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- 46.0% D / 54.0% R
- Polling average margin
- R +8.0
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polls included
- 1
- Latest poll
- Tavern Research (D) — January 28, 2026