Kansas 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Kansas Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Kansas Senate forecast currently gives Republican Roger Marshall a 67.8% chance of defeating Democrat Adam Hamilton. Pollsmax projects Marshall to receive 51.3% of the vote compared with 48.8% for Hamilton, a projected Republican margin of 2.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Kansas Senate election features Democrat Adam Hamilton and Republican Roger Marshall. Incumbent Senator Roger Marshall is seeking reelection to a second full term, having served in the US Senate since 2021. In 2024, Donald Trump won Kansas by 16.1%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether Hamilton can make Kansas more competitive than its recent federal results suggest or whether Marshall can hold a normally safe Republican seat. Kansas is not expected to be a top-tier Senate battleground, but the race remains part of the GOP's path to preserving control of the US Senate.