Kansas 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Kansas Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Kansas Senate forecast currently gives Republican Roger Marshall a 89.9% chance of defeating Democrat Adam Hamilton. Pollsmax projects Marshall to receive 54.4% of the vote compared with 45.7% for Hamilton, a projected Republican margin of 8.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Kansas Senate election features Democrat Adam Hamilton and Republican Roger Marshall. Incumbent senator Roger Marshall is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the US Senate since 2021. In 2024, Donald Trump won Kansas by 16.1%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.