2026 MIDTERMS

House Forecast

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The 2026 House elections will determine control of the lower chamber of Congress during the second half of President Donald Trump’s term. Going into the midterms, Republicans are defending their narrow 218-seat majority. Democrats currently control 212 seats, while 5 are vacant. In order to flip the House blue, Democrats are looking to preserve vulnerable seats while finding pickup opportunities in Republican-held districts. Since winning a majority requires 218 seats, Democrats need to flip roughly five GOP seats without losing any of their own. The race for House control in 2026 is incredibly competitive, with aggressive gerrymandering and mid-decade redistricting providing Republicans with a much-needed boost.

2026 House Forecast:

National forecast for control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. This page updates with 100,000 full-chamber simulations daily to generate projected seat totals and odds for winning House control. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

Year: 2026
Race: House of Representatives
Current House: 212 D / 218 R
Current majority: Republican
Seats on ballot: 435
Forecast control odds: 84.7% D / 15.3% R
Projected house: 227.8 D / 207.2 R
Forecast last updated: 12:00 AM on October 3, 2026

House Seat Distribution

Distribution of House seats from 100,000 daily simulations based on statewide and national polling data, race ratings, previous election results, and other factors. Projected seats may differ from the map projection, as the map shows wins as absolute. If one party is narrowly winning many seats while the other party is firmly winning theirs, the party narrowly winning many seats may win more according to the map versus the simulated distribution.

Projected Seats

Estimated House seats for each party based on 100,000 daily simulations.

Odds of Winning

Estimated odds of winning House control for each party based on 100,000 daily simulations.

House Map

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Democrats

435 seats up for election

Republicans

227

208

218 seats to win

Democratic Republican

Win Solid > 15%

Likely 5 - 15%

Lean 1 - 5%

Tilt < 1%

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House Race Ratings

All 435 House elections sorted by forecast ratings, based on statewide and national polling data, race ratings, previous election results, and other factors. Names indicate the incumbent if they are seeking reelection. Text colors indicate the party currently in control of the seat.

House Forecast

House Seat Distribution

Projected Seats

Odds of Winning

House Map

House Race Ratings

Solid D

Likely D

Lean D

Tilt D

Tilt R

Lean R

Likely R

Solid R

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