North Carolina11th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 North Carolina 11th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for North Carolina's 11th congressional district House election between Democrat Jamie Ager and Republican Chuck Edwards. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 North Carolina 11th District House election features Democrat Jamie Ager and Republican Chuck Edwards. Incumbent Representative Chuck Edwards is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won North Carolina's 11th congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. North Carolina conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- NC-11
- Democratic candidate
- Jamie Ager
- Republican candidate
- Chuck Edwards
- Incumbent / open seat
- Chuck Edwards
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 47.5% D / 52.5% R
- Projected margin
- R +5.0
- Forecast odds
- 19.4% D / 80.6% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —