North Carolina 112026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 North Carolina 11th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 North Carolina 11th District House forecast currently gives Republican Chuck Edwards a 80.2% chance of defeating Democrat Jamie Ager. Pollsmax projects Edwards to receive 52.5% of the vote compared with 47.5% for Ager, a projected Republican margin of 5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 North Carolina 11th District House election features Democrat Jamie Ager and Republican Chuck Edwards. Incumbent Representative Chuck Edwards is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won North Carolina's 11th congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. North Carolina conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.