North Carolina 112026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 North Carolina 11th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 North Carolina 11th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Jamie Ager a 52.7% chance of defeating Republican Jennifer Balkcom. Pollsmax projects Ager to receive 50.3% of the vote compared with 49.8% for Balkcom, a projected Democratic margin of 0.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 North Carolina 11th District House election features Democrat Jamie Ager and Republican Jennifer Balkcom. The seat is open in 2026, giving both parties a chance to win the district's representation in the lower chamber of Congress. This race is rated as tilt Democratic. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive North Carolina seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. North Carolina's 11th District will be critical in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. North Carolina conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.