Georgia 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Georgia Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Georgia Senate forecast currently gives Democrat Jon Ossoff a 76% chance of defeating Republican Mike Collins. Pollsmax projects Ossoff to receive 52.2% of the vote compared with 47.8% for Collins, a projected Democratic margin of 4.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Georgia Senate election features Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Mike Collins. Incumbent senator Jon Ossoff is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the US Senate since 2021. In 2024, Donald Trump won Georgia by 2.2%, but the election for the state's Senate seat is a toss-up in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle. Georgia's seat will be critical in determining the balance of power in the US Senate for the second half of President Trump's term, as victory for Democrats will be key in their effort to flip the upper chamber of Congress blue.