Ohio 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Ohio Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Ohio Senate forecast currently gives Republican Jon Husted a 50.6% chance of defeating Democrat Sherrod Brown. Pollsmax projects Husted to receive 50.1% of the vote compared with 50% for Brown, a projected Republican margin of 0.1 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Ohio Senate election features Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Jon Husted. Incumbent senator Jon Husted is seeking reelection to a first term, having served in the US Senate since 2025. In 2024, Donald Trump won Ohio by 11.2%, and Republicans are expected to retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle.