Ohio 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Ohio Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Ohio Senate forecast currently gives Democrat Sherrod Brown a 52.6% chance of defeating Republican Jon Husted. Pollsmax projects Brown to receive 50.2% of the vote compared with 49.8% for Husted, a projected Democratic margin of 0.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Ohio Senate election features Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Jon Husted. Incumbent Senator Jon Husted is seeking to serve out the remainder of JD Vance's Senate term, having served in the US Senate since 2025. In 2024, Donald Trump won Ohio by a wide margin, but the state's Senate race is competitive in 2026. The race will test whether Brown can win back a Senate seat in a state that has moved right or whether Husted can hold Ohio for Republicans. Ohio's Senate forecast and Senate polls are among the most important to watch because the race could help decide control of the US Senate.