Arizona 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST
2026 Arizona Governor Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Arizona's Governor election between Democrat Katie Hobbs and Republican Andy Biggs. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Arizona governor election features Democrat Katie Hobbs and Republican Andy Biggs. Incumbent governor Katie Hobbs is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2023. In 2024, Donald Trump won Arizona by 5.5%, and Democrats are expected to narrowly retain the state's governorship in 2026. Arizona voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction. A win would be important for Democrats as they try to win a majority of governorships for the first time since 2009.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Governor
- State
- Arizona
- Democratic candidate
- Katie Hobbs
- Republican candidate
- Andy Biggs
- Incumbent / open seat
- Katie Hobbs
- Forecast rating
- Lean D
- Projected vote
- 52.0% D / 48.1% R
- Projected margin
- D +3.9
- Forecast odds
- 72.3% D / 27.7% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on August 4, 2026
- Polling average
- 42.5% D / 38.2% R
- Polling average margin
- D +4.3
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on August 5, 2026
- Polls included
- 10
- Latest poll
- Noble Predictive Insights — May 7, 2026