Arizona 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Arizona Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Arizona Governor forecast currently gives Democrat Katie Hobbs a 81.3% chance of defeating Republican Andy Biggs. Pollsmax projects Hobbs to receive 52.9% of the vote compared with 47.1% for Biggs, a projected Democratic margin of 5.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Arizona governor election features Democrat Katie Hobbs and Republican Andy Biggs. Incumbent Governor Katie Hobbs is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2023. In 2024, Donald Trump won Arizona by 5.5%, but Democrats are favored to narrowly retain the state's governorship in 2026. The race will test whether Hobbs can hold a Democratic governorship in a presidential battleground or whether Biggs can flip one of the GOP's top pickup opportunities. Arizona's governor race will be one of the most important statewide contests of the 2026 midterms.