Arizona 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Arizona Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Arizona Governor forecast currently gives Democrat Katie Hobbs a 80.3% chance of defeating Republican Andy Biggs. Pollsmax projects Hobbs to receive 52.7% of the vote compared with 47.3% for Biggs, a projected Democratic margin of 5.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Arizona governor election features Democrat Katie Hobbs and Republican Andy Biggs. Incumbent governor Katie Hobbs is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2023. In 2024, Donald Trump won Arizona by 5.5%, and Democrats are expected to narrowly retain the state's governorship in 2026. Arizona voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction. A win would be important for Democrats as they try to win a majority of governorships for the first time since 2009.