Texas 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Texas Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas Senate forecast currently gives Republican Ken Paxton a 77.2% chance of defeating Democrat James Talarico. Pollsmax projects Paxton to receive 52.4% of the vote compared with 47.6% for Talarico, a projected Republican margin of 4.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas Senate election features Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas by 13.7%, and Republicans are expected to narrowly retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. Texas has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot. Texas' seat will be critical in determining the balance of power in the US Senate for the second half of President Trump's term, as victory for Republicans will be key in their effort to preserve the GOP majority in the upper chamber of Congress.