Texas 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Texas Senate Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Texas' Senate election between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.

The 2026 Texas Senate election features Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas by 13.7%, and Republicans are expected to narrowly retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. Texas has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot. Texas' seat will be critical in determining the balance of power in the US Senate for the second half of President Trump's term, as victory for Republicans will be key in their effort to preserve the GOP majority in the upper chamber of Congress.