Texas 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Texas Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas Senate forecast currently gives Republican Ken Paxton a 54.3% chance of defeating Democrat James Talarico. Pollsmax projects Paxton to receive 50.4% of the vote compared with 49.6% for Talarico, a projected Republican margin of 0.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas Senate election features Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas by 13.7%, and Republicans are favored to retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether Talarico can turn Texas into a true Democratic pickup opportunity or whether Paxton can keep the seat in Republican hands despite a potentially competitive statewide environment. Texas' Senate forecast and Senate polls are among the most important to watch because the race is one of the most expensive contests on the 2026 US Senate map.