DEMOCRATIC
Texas House of Representatives (D-TX)
2018 – Present
2026 Texas Senate Forecast
2026 Senate
Republican
REPUBLICAN
Texas Attorney General (R)
2015 – Present
2026 Texas Senate Forecast
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Senate
- State
- Texas
- Democratic candidate
- James Talarico
- Republican candidate
- Ken Paxton
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open Seat
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 46.7% D / 53.3% R
- Projected margin
- R +6.6
- Forecast odds
- 16.3% D / 83.7% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on June 20, 2026
- Polling average
- 42.7% D / 44.5% R
- Polling average margin
- R +1.8
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on June 20, 2026
- Polls included
- 13
- Latest poll
- Siena College / Texas A&M University — June 4, 2026