Nebraska 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Nebraska Senate Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Nebraska's Senate election between independent Dan Osborn and Republican Pete Ricketts. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.

The 2026 Nebraska Senate election features independent Dan Osborn and Republican Pete Ricketts. Incumbent senator Pete Ricketts is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the US Senate since 2023. In 2024, Donald Trump won Nebraska by 20.5%, and Republicans are expected to narrowly retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle. Nebraska's seat will be critical in determining the balance of power in the US Senate for the second half of President Trump's term, as victory for Republicans will be key in their effort to preserve the GOP majority in the upper chamber of Congress.