Nebraska 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Nebraska Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Nebraska Senate forecast currently gives Republican Pete Ricketts a 80.8% chance of defeating independent Dan Osborn. Pollsmax projects Ricketts to receive 52.6% of the vote compared with 47.5% for Osborn, a projected Republican margin of 5.1 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Nebraska Senate election features independent Dan Osborn and Republican Pete Ricketts. Incumbent Senator Pete Ricketts is seeking election to a first full term, having served in the US Senate since 2023. In 2024, Donald Trump won Nebraska comfortably, but Osborn's independent campaign gives the race a different shape than a traditional Democrat-versus-Republican contest. The race will test whether Osborn can assemble a populist crossover coalition or whether Ricketts can keep Nebraska safely in the Republican column. Nebraska's Senate forecast and Senate polls could become important if independent support consolidates against the GOP.