Nebraska 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Nebraska Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Nebraska Senate forecast currently gives Republican Pete Ricketts a 76.3% chance of defeating independent Dan Osborn. Pollsmax projects Ricketts to receive 52.2% of the vote compared with 47.8% for Osborn, a projected Republican margin of 4.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Nebraska Senate election features independent Dan Osborn and Republican Pete Ricketts. Incumbent senator Pete Ricketts is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the US Senate since 2023. In 2024, Donald Trump won Nebraska by 20.5%, and Republicans are expected to narrowly retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle. Nebraska's seat will be critical in determining the balance of power in the US Senate for the second half of President Trump's term, as victory for Republicans will be key in their effort to preserve the GOP majority in the upper chamber of Congress.