Nevada 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Nevada Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Nevada Governor forecast currently gives Republican Joe Lombardo a 71.2% chance of defeating Democrat Aaron Ford. Pollsmax projects Lombardo to receive 51.8% of the vote compared with 48.3% for Ford, a projected Republican margin of 3.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Nevada governor election features Democrat Aaron Ford and Republican Joe Lombardo. Incumbent governor Joe Lombardo is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2023. In 2024, Donald Trump won Nevada by 3.1%, and Republicans are expected to retain the state's governorship in 2026. Nevada voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction.