Nevada 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

Joe Lombardo*

REPUBLICAN

Governor (R-NV)

2023 – Present

2026 Nevada Governor Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Nevada's Governor election between Democrat Aaron Ford and Republican Joe Lombardo. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.

The 2026 Nevada governor election features Democrat Aaron Ford and Republican Joe Lombardo. Incumbent governor Joe Lombardo is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2023. In 2024, Donald Trump won Nevada by 3.1%, and Republicans are expected to retain the state's governorship in 2026. Nevada voters will decide whether to extend the incumbent party's control of the governor's mansion or move the state in a new direction.

Year: 2026
Race: Governor
State: Nevada
Democratic candidate: Aaron Ford
Republican candidate: Joe Lombardo
Incumbent / open seat: Joe Lombardo
Forecast rating: Tilt R
Projected vote: 48.9% D / 51.1% R
Projected margin: R +2.2
Forecast odds: 37.2% D / 62.8% R
Forecast last updated: 12:00 AM on July 31, 2026
Polling average: 42.3% D / 46.2% R
Polling average margin: R +3.8
Polling last updated: 12:00 AM on July 31, 2026
Polls included: 7
Latest poll: Public Policy Polling (D) — July 16, 2026