Nevada 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Nevada Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Nevada Governor forecast currently gives Democrat Aaron Ford a 54.5% chance of defeating Republican Joe Lombardo. Pollsmax projects Ford to receive 50.5% of the vote compared with 49.6% for Lombardo, a projected Democratic margin of 0.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Nevada governor election features Democrat Aaron Ford and Republican Joe Lombardo. Incumbent Governor Joe Lombardo is seeking reelection to a second term, having served in the governor's mansion since 2023. In 2024, Donald Trump won Nevada, and Republicans are slightly favored to retain the state's governorship in 2026. The race will test whether Ford can flip a Republican-held governorship in a presidential battleground or whether Lombardo can hold together his crossover coalition. Nevada's governor race will be one of the most important contests in determining the national balance of governorships.