Ohio 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST
2026 Ohio Governor Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Ohio's Governor election between Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Ohio governor election features Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Ohio by 11.2%, and Republicans are expected to narrowly retain the state's governorship in 2026. Ohio has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot. A win would be important for Republicans as they try to defend their coalition of 26 governorships going into the midterms.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Governor
- State
- Ohio
- Democratic candidate
- Amy Acton
- Republican candidate
- Vivek Ramaswamy
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open Seat
- Forecast rating
- Lean R
- Projected vote
- 47.3% D / 52.8% R
- Projected margin
- R +5.5
- Forecast odds
- 21.8% D / 78.2% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on August 4, 2026
- Polling average
- 46.2% D / 47.0% R
- Polling average margin
- R +0.8
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on August 5, 2026
- Polls included
- 15
- Latest poll
- New York Times / Siena College — June 28, 2026