North Carolina 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 North Carolina Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 North Carolina Senate forecast currently gives Democrat Roy Cooper a 83.3% chance of defeating Republican Michael Whatley. Pollsmax projects Cooper to receive 53.3% of the vote compared with 46.8% for Whatley, a projected Democratic margin of 6.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 North Carolina Senate election features Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won North Carolina, but Democrats are favored to flip the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether Cooper can translate his statewide popularity into a Democratic Senate pickup or whether Whatley can keep one of the GOP's most important seats in Republican hands. North Carolina's Senate forecast and Senate polls will be critical to watch because the race could help determine control of the US Senate for the second half of President Trump's term.