North Carolina 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 North Carolina Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 North Carolina Senate forecast currently gives Democrat Roy Cooper a 79.4% chance of defeating Republican Michael Whatley. Pollsmax projects Cooper to receive 52.7% of the vote compared with 47.3% for Whatley, a projected Democratic margin of 5.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 North Carolina Senate election features Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won North Carolina by 3.2%, but Democrats are expected to narrowly flip the state's Senate seat in 2026. North Carolina's mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters makes the statewide margin especially important in a competitive Senate race. North Carolina's seat will be critical in determining the balance of power in the US Senate for the second half of President Trump's term, as victory for Democrats will be key in their effort to flip the upper chamber of Congress blue.