North Carolina 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 North Carolina Senate Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for North Carolina's Senate election between Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.

The 2026 North Carolina Senate election features Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won North Carolina by 3.2%, but Democrats are expected to narrowly flip the state's Senate seat in 2026. North Carolina's mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters makes the statewide margin especially important in a competitive Senate race. North Carolina's seat will be critical in determining the balance of power in the US Senate for the second half of President Trump's term, as victory for Democrats will be key in their effort to flip the upper chamber of Congress blue.