Iowa 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST
2026 Iowa Governor Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Iowa's Governor election between Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Iowa governor election features Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Iowa by 13.2%, and Republicans are expected to narrowly retain the state's governorship in 2026. Iowa has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot. A win would be important for Republicans as they try to defend their coalition of 26 governorships going into the midterms.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Governor
- State
- Iowa
- Democratic candidate
- Rob Sand
- Republican candidate
- Zach Lahn
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open Seat
- Forecast rating
- Tilt D
- Projected vote
- 50.1% D / 50.0% R
- Projected margin
- D +0.1
- Forecast odds
- 50.5% D / 49.5% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on August 4, 2026
- Polling average
- 49.5% D / 45.6% R
- Polling average margin
- D +3.9
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on August 5, 2026
- Polls included
- 3
- Latest poll
- New York Times / Siena College — June 27, 2026