Iowa 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Iowa Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Iowa Governor forecast currently gives Democrat Rob Sand a 68.9% chance of defeating Republican Zach Lahn. Pollsmax projects Sand to receive 51.7% of the vote compared with 48.3% for Lahn, a projected Democratic margin of 3.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Iowa governor election features Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Iowa by 13.2%, but the election for the state's governorship is highly competitive in 2026. The race will test whether Sand can turn his statewide profile into a Democratic pickup or whether Lahn can keep Iowa's governorship in Republican hands. Iowa's governor race is one of the most important open-seat contests on the 2026 map.