Iowa 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Iowa Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Iowa Governor forecast currently gives Democrat Rob Sand a 58.9% chance of defeating Republican Zach Lahn. Pollsmax projects Sand to receive 50.8% of the vote compared with 49.2% for Lahn, a projected Democratic margin of 1.6 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Iowa governor election features Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Iowa by 13.2%, and Republicans are expected to narrowly retain the state's governorship in 2026. Iowa has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot. A win would be important for Republicans as they try to defend their coalition of 26 governorships going into the midterms.