Maine 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Maine Senate Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Maine's Senate election between Democrat Troy Jackson and Republican Susan Collins. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.

The 2026 Maine Senate election features Democrat Troy Jackson and Republican Susan Collins. Incumbent senator Susan Collins is seeking reelection to a sixth term, having served in the US Senate since 1997. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Maine by 6.8%, but the election for the state's Senate seat is a toss-up in 2026. The race will test whether the incumbent party can hold its existing Senate coalition as national conditions shift during the midterm cycle. Maine's seat will be critical in determining the balance of power in the US Senate for the second half of President Trump's term, as victory for Democrats will be key in their effort to flip the upper chamber of Congress blue.