Maine 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 Maine Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Maine Senate forecast currently gives Democrat Troy Jackson a 54.2% chance of defeating Republican Susan Collins. Pollsmax projects Jackson to receive 50.4% of the vote compared with 49.6% for Collins, a projected Democratic margin of 0.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Maine Senate election features Democrat Troy Jackson and Republican Susan Collins. Incumbent Senator Susan Collins is seeking reelection to a sixth full term, having served in the US Senate since 1997. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Maine, but the election for the state's Senate seat is rated as a toss-up in 2026. The race will test whether Collins can once again hold a crossover coalition in a blue-leaning state or whether Jackson can turn Maine into a Democratic Senate pickup. Maine's Senate forecast and Senate polls will be critical to watch because the race could help determine control of the US Senate for the second half of President Trump's term.