Kansas 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Kansas Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Kansas Governor forecast currently gives Republican Ty Masterson a 75.8% chance of defeating Democrat Cindy Holscher. Pollsmax projects Masterson to receive 52.4% of the vote compared with 47.6% for Holscher, a projected Republican margin of 4.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Kansas governor election features Democrat Cindy Holscher and Republican Ty Masterson. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Donald Trump won Kansas by a clear margin, but open-seat governor races in the state can be more competitive than federal elections. The race will test whether Holscher can hold the governorship for Democrats after Laura Kelly's tenure or whether Masterson can flip one of the GOP's top pickup opportunities. Kansas will be an important race in determining whether Democrats can continue competing for governorships in Republican-leaning states.