Kansas 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Kansas Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Kansas Governor forecast currently gives Republican Ty Masterson a 71.7% chance of defeating Democrat Cindy Holscher. Pollsmax projects Masterson to receive 52.4% of the vote compared with 47.6% for Holscher, a projected Republican margin of 4.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Kansas governor election features Democrat Cindy Holscher and Republican Ty Masterson. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Donald Trump won Kansas by 16.1%, but Republicans are expected to flip the state's governorship in 2026. Kansas has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot. This would be the Republicans' first gubernatorial victory in Kansas since 2014. A win would be important for Republicans as they try to defend their coalition of 26 governorships going into the midterms.