Kansas 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST
2026 Kansas Governor Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Kansas' Governor election between Democrat Cindy Holscher and Republican Ty Masterson. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 Kansas governor election features Democrat Cindy Holscher and Republican Ty Masterson. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Donald Trump won Kansas by 16.1%, but Republicans are expected to flip the state's governorship in 2026. Kansas has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot. This would be the Republicans' first gubernatorial victory in Kansas since 2014. A win would be important for Republicans as they try to defend their coalition of 26 governorships going into the midterms.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Governor
- State
- Kansas
- Democratic candidate
- Cindy Holscher
- Republican candidate
- Ty Masterson
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open Seat
- Forecast rating
- Lean R
- Projected vote
- 47.5% D / 52.6% R
- Projected margin
- R +5.1
- Forecast odds
- 29.1% D / 70.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
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