Wisconsin 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Wisconsin Governor Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Wisconsin's Governor election between Democrat Francesca Hong and Republican Tom Tiffany. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.

The 2026 Wisconsin governor election features Democrat Francesca Hong and Republican Tom Tiffany. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Donald Trump won Wisconsin by 0.9%, but Republicans are expected to narrowly flip the state's governorship in 2026. Wisconsin's mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters makes the statewide margin especially important in a competitive governor race. This would be the Republicans' first gubernatorial victory in Wisconsin since 2014. A win would be important for Republicans as they try to defend their coalition of 26 governorships going into the midterms.