Wisconsin 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Wisconsin Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Wisconsin Governor forecast currently gives Democrat David Crowley a 73.6% chance of defeating Republican Tom Tiffany. Pollsmax projects Crowley to receive 52.3% of the vote compared with 47.7% for Tiffany, a projected Democratic margin of 4.6 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Wisconsin governor election features Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Donald Trump won Wisconsin by 0.9%, but the election for the state's governorship is rated as highly competitive in 2026. The race will test whether Crowley can hold the governorship for Democrats in one of the nation's closest battlegrounds or whether Tiffany can flip Wisconsin into the Republican column. Wisconsin's governor race will be critical to watch because it could help determine the national balance of governorships after the midterms.