Wisconsin 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Wisconsin Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Wisconsin Governor forecast currently gives Democrat David Crowley a 55.1% chance of defeating Republican Tom Tiffany. Pollsmax projects Crowley to receive 50.5% of the vote compared with 49.5% for Tiffany, a projected Democratic margin of 1 percentage point. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Wisconsin governor election features Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Donald Trump won Wisconsin by 0.9%, but Republicans are expected to narrowly flip the state's governorship in 2026. Wisconsin's mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters makes the statewide margin especially important in a competitive governor race. This would be the Republicans' first gubernatorial victory in Wisconsin since 2014. A win would be important for Republicans as they try to defend their coalition of 26 governorships going into the midterms.