Alaska 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Alaska Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Alaska Governor forecast currently gives Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins a 65.3% chance of defeating Republican Bernadette Wilson. Pollsmax projects Kreiss-Tomkins to receive 51.3% of the vote compared with 48.8% for Wilson, a projected Democratic margin of 2.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Alaska governor election features Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Republican Bernadette Wilson, with Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor also on the ballot. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Alaska by 13.1%. Alaska has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but this open-seat race is competitive in the polling average, which combines the three Republicans against the Democrat.