Alaska 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 Alaska Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Alaska Governor forecast currently gives Republican Bernadette Wilson a 83.7% chance of defeating Democrat Tom Begich. Pollsmax projects Wilson to receive 54.8% of the vote compared with 45.2% for Begich, a projected Republican margin of 9.6 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Alaska governor election features Democrat Tom Begich and Republican Bernadette Wilson. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Republicans. In 2024, Donald Trump won Alaska by 13.1%, and Republicans are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. Alaska has leaned Republican in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can become more competitive when both parties have well-known nominees and no incumbent on the ballot.