James Talarico

DEMOCRATIC

Texas State House (D)

2018 – Present

Texas 2026 SENATE POLLS

Ken Paxton

REPUBLICAN

Texas Attorney General (R)

2026 Texas Senate Polls:

Aggregate of all polls released for Texas' Senate election between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. This page will update the moment new polls are released, including the polling average, projected margin, and survey details.

Year: 2026
Race: Senate
State: Texas
Democratic candidate: James Talarico
Republican candidate: Ken Paxton
Incumbent / open seat: Open Seat
Polling average: 45.1% D / 46.4% R
Polling average margin: R +1.3
Last updated: 12:00 AM on August 4, 2026
Polls included: 21
Latest poll: Wedgewood Polls — July 31, 2026

Democrat

—%

Weighted polling average

Republican

—%

Weighted polling average

Net margin

—

Polling average difference

Polls Included

—

Number of polls conducted

Polling Average

—

46.4%

45.1%

R +1.3

Wedgewood Polls

July 31, 2026

800 LV

46%

48%

D +2.0

Texas Southern University

July 30, 2026

1,200 RV

45%

47%

D +2.0

Fox News / Beacon Research

July 27, 2026

1,006 RV

48%

51%

D +3.0

Slingshot Strategies (D)

July 17, 2026

1,048 LV

40%

45%

D +5.0

A2 Insights

June 28, 2026

618 LV

46%

48%

D +2.3

New York Times / Siena College

June 27, 2026

656 LV

47%

Even

SoCal Strategies (R)

June 21, 2026

800 LV

49%

47%

R +1.4

University of Texas / YouGov

June 12, 2026

1,200 RV

43%

42%

R +1.0

Quantus Insights (R)

June 4, 2026

800 LV

45%

43%

R +2.0

Siena College / Texas A&M University

June 4, 2026

807 LV

44%

Even

Texas Public Opinion Research

May 28, 2026

1,670 LV

44%

47%

D +3.0

Public Policy Polling (D)

May 23, 2026

643 RV

38%

45%

D +7.0

Texas Public Opinion Research

April 20, 2026

1,018 LV

41%

46%

D +5.0

University of Texas / Texas Politics Project

April 20, 2026

1,200 RV

34%

42%

D +8.0

Impact Research (D)

March 17, 2026

900 LV

41%

43%

D +2.0

Public Policy Polling (D)

March 5, 2026

576 V

43%

44%

D +1.0

University of Houston / YouGov

January 31, 2026

1,502 LV

44%

43%

R +1.0

Emerson College

January 12, 2026

1,165 RV

47%

44%

R +3.0

Ragnar Research Partners (R)

November 17, 2025

1,000 LV

46%

40%

R +6.0

University of Houston / Texas Southern University

October 1, 2025

1,650 RV

48%

45%

R +3.0

Univeristy of Texas at Tyler

September 24, 2025

1,032 RV

41%

35%

R +6.0