Pollsmax on X
James Talarico, 2026 Texas Senate Democratic candidate
James Talarico
DEMOCRATIC
Texas State House (D)
2018 – Present

2026 Texas Senate Polls

Ken Paxton, 2026 Texas Senate Republican candidate
Ken Paxton
REPUBLICAN
Texas Attorney General (R)
2015 – Present

2026 Texas Senate Polling Average:

Aggregate of all polls released for Texas' Senate election between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. This page will update the moment new polls are released, including the polling average, projected margin, and survey details.

Year
2026
Race
Senate
State
Texas
Democratic candidate
James Talarico
Republican candidate
Ken Paxton
Incumbent / open seat
Open Seat
Polling average
48.1% D / 45.2% R
Polling average margin
D +2.8
Last updated
12:00 AM on October 14, 2026
Polls included
54
Latest poll
ActiVote — October 14, 2026

Texas Senate Polling Trend

2026 Texas Senate Polling Average

James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by 2.9% in the Pollsmax polling average for the 2026 Texas Senate election, 48.1% to 45.2%. The average currently aggregates results from 54 polls. According to the latest Texas Senate poll, conducted by ActiVote on October 14, Talarico leads Paxton 52% to 48%.

Democrat

—%

Weighted polling average

Republican

—%

Weighted polling average

Net margin

—

Polling average difference

Polls Included

—

Number of polls conducted

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Latest Texas Senate Polls

Pollster
Date
Sample
James Talarico
Ken Paxton
Margin
Polling Average
—
—
48.1%
45.2%
D +2.8
ActiVote
October 14, 2026
400 LV
52%
48%
D +4.0
Quantus Insights (R)
October 11, 2026
854 LV
47%
47%
Even
Marist University
October 11, 2026
— LV
47%
45%
D +2.0
Trafalgar Group (R)
October 8, 2026
1,086 LV
47%
44%
D +3.0
Siena College / ReconMR
October 8, 2026
617 LV
48%
44%
D +4.0
YouGov
October 5, 2026
3,625 LV
50%
44%
D +6.0
University of Texas / Texas Politics Project
October 5, 2026
861 LV
50%
47%
D +3.0
New York Times / Siena College
September 30, 2026
615 LV
51%
45%
D +6.0
Rasmussen Reports (R)
September 29, 2026
1,128 LV
46%
45%
D +1.0
Fox News / Beacon Research
September 28, 2026
881 LV
51%
49%
D +2.0
Guidant Polling and Strategy (R)
September 28, 2026
800 LV
47%
44%
D +3.0
University of Massachusetts Lowell / YouGov
September 28, 2026
850 LV
45%
45%
Even
Pulse Opinion Research (R)
September 27, 2026
800 LV
45%
48%
R +3.0
Big Data Poll (R)
September 26, 2026
698 LV
45%
42%
D +3.0
Stratus Intelligence (R)
September 24, 2026
856 LV
48%
48%
Even
Texas Public Opinion Research
September 22, 2026
1,007 LV
49%
44%
D +5.0
Marist University
September 20, 2026
1,139 RV
50%
44%
D +6.0
Texas Southern University
September 19, 2026
1,800 LV
47%
46%
D +1.0
Trafalgar Group (R)
September 17, 2026
1,079 LV
46%
45%
D +1.2
Emerson College
September 14, 2026
1,000 LV
47%
46%
D +1.0
SoCal Strategies (R)
September 13, 2026
649 LV
50%
45%
D +5.0
Siena College / ReconMR
September 11, 2026
614 LV
49%
43%
D +6.0
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy
September 10, 2026
625 LV
46%
43%
D +3.0
InsiderAdvantage (R)
September 9, 2026
1,200 LV
47%
46%
D +1.5
YouGov
September 4, 2026
1,000 RV
48%
43%
D +5.0
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)
September 1, 2026
895 LV
48%
44%
D +4.0
Overton Insights
August 26, 2026
1,167 LV
50%
50%
Even
Slingshot Strategies (D)
August 24, 2026
1,000 LV
48%
42%
D +6.0
University of Texas / YouGov
August 13, 2026
1,200 RV
42%
39%
D +3.0
Emerson College
August 10, 2026
1,000 LV
46%
47%
R +1.0
Wedgewood Polls
July 31, 2026
800 LV
48%
46%
D +2.0
YouGov
July 31, 2026
1,001 RV
48%
45%
D +3.0
Siena College / Texas A&M University
July 30, 2026
619 LV
47%
43%
D +4.0
Texas Southern University
July 30, 2026
1,200 RV
47%
45%
D +2.0
Fox News / Beacon Research
July 27, 2026
1,006 RV
51%
48%
D +3.0
Slingshot Strategies (D)
July 17, 2026
1,048 LV
45%
40%
D +5.0
A2 Insights
June 28, 2026
618 LV
48%
46%
D +2.3
New York Times / Siena College
June 27, 2026
656 LV
47%
47%
Even
SoCal Strategies (R)
June 21, 2026
800 LV
47%
49%
R +1.4
University of Texas / YouGov
June 12, 2026
1,200 RV
42%
43%
R +1.0
Quantus Insights (R)
June 4, 2026
800 LV
43%
45%
R +2.0
Siena College / Texas A&M University
June 4, 2026
807 LV
44%
44%
Even
Texas Public Opinion Research
May 28, 2026
1,670 LV
47%
44%
D +3.0
Public Policy Polling (D)
May 23, 2026
643 RV
45%
38%
D +7.0
Texas Southern University
May 6, 2026
1,223 LV
45%
45%
Even
Texas Public Opinion Research
April 20, 2026
1,018 LV
46%
41%
D +5.0
University of Texas / Texas Politics Project
April 20, 2026
1,200 RV
42%
34%
D +8.0
Impact Research (D)
March 17, 2026
900 LV
43%
41%
D +2.0
Public Policy Polling (D)
March 5, 2026
576 V
44%
43%
D +1.0
University of Houston / YouGov
January 31, 2026
1,502 LV
43%
44%
R +1.0
Emerson College
January 12, 2026
1,165 RV
44%
47%
R +3.0
Ragnar Research Partners (R)
November 17, 2025
1,000 LV
40%
46%
R +6.0
University of Houston / Texas Southern University
October 1, 2025
1,650 RV
45%
48%
R +3.0
Univeristy of Texas at Tyler
September 24, 2025
1,032 RV
35%
41%
R +6.0

About the Pollsmax Polling Average

Pollsmax creates a time-weighted and partisanship-adjusted polling average from an aggregate of all polls conducted for the general election. See the polling methodology to learn more about how polls are standardized and weighted.