Texas 272026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 27th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 27th District House forecast currently gives Republican Michael Cloud a 97.6% chance of defeating Democrat Tanya Lloyd. Pollsmax projects Cloud to receive 59.9% of the vote compared with 40.1% for Lloyd, a projected Republican margin of 19.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 27th District House election features Democrat Tanya Lloyd and Republican Michael Cloud. Incumbent Representative Michael Cloud is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 27th congressional district by 14.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.