Kansas 12026 HOUSE POLLS
2026 Kansas 1st District House Forecast:
The Pollsmax 2026 Kansas 1st District House forecast currently gives Republican Tracey Mann a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Lauren Reinhold. Pollsmax projects Mann to receive 61.3% of the vote compared with 38.7% for Reinhold, a projected Republican margin of 22.6 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.
The 2026 Kansas 1st District House election features Democrat Lauren Reinhold and Republican Tracey Mann. Incumbent Representative Tracey Mann is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Kansas' 1st congressional district by 25.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- KS-1
- Democratic candidate
- Lauren Reinhold
- Republican candidate
- Tracey Mann
- Incumbent / open seat
- Tracey Mann
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 38.7% D / 61.3% R
- Projected margin
- R +22.6
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on November 3, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
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