Florida 162026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 16th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 16th District House forecast currently gives Republican Sydney Gruters a 89% chance of defeating Democrat Kelly Kirschner. Pollsmax projects Gruters to receive 55.3% of the vote compared with 44.8% for Kirschner, a projected Republican margin of 10.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 16th District House election features Democrat Kelly Kirschner and Republican Sydney Gruters. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Florida's 16th congressional district by 8.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.