Texas 382026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 38th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 38th District House forecast currently gives Republican Jon Bonck a 95.9% chance of defeating Democrat Melissa McDonough. Pollsmax projects Bonck to receive 58.4% of the vote compared with 41.6% for McDonough, a projected Republican margin of 16.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 38th District House election features Democrat Melissa McDonough and Republican Jon Bonck. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 38th congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.