Texas38th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Texas 38th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Texas's 38th congressional district House election between Democrat Melissa McDonough and Republican Jon Bonck. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Texas 38th District House election features Democrat Melissa McDonough and Republican Jon Bonck. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 38th congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- TX-38
- Democratic candidate
- Melissa McDonough
- Republican candidate
- Jon Bonck
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open seat
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 41.6% D / 58.4% R
- Projected margin
- R +16.8
- Forecast odds
- 3.6% D / 96.4% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —