Pennsylvania 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Pennsylvania 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Pennsylvania 4th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Madeleine Dean a 97.1% chance of defeating Republican Aurora Stuski. Pollsmax projects Dean to receive 59.2% of the vote compared with 40.8% for Stuski, a projected Democratic margin of 18.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Pennsylvania 4th District House election features Democrat Madeleine Dean and Republican Aurora Stuski. Incumbent Representative Madeleine Dean is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.