Madeleine Dean*
DEMOCRATIC
US House of Representatives (D-PA)
2019 – Present
Pennsylvania4th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Aurora Stuski
REPUBLICAN
Gemologist
2026 Pennsylvania 4th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district House election between Democrat Madeleine Dean and Republican Aurora Stuski. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Pennsylvania 4th District House election features Democrat Madeleine Dean and Republican Aurora Stuski. Incumbent Representative Madeleine Dean is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- PA-4
- Democratic candidate
- Madeleine Dean
- Republican candidate
- Aurora Stuski
- Incumbent / open seat
- Madeleine Dean
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 59.2% D / 40.9% R
- Projected margin
- D +18.3
- Forecast odds
- 96.7% D / 3.3% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —