Tennessee 62026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Tennessee 6th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Tennessee 6th District House forecast currently gives Republican Johnny Garrett a 99.3% chance of defeating Democrat Mike Croley. Pollsmax projects Garrett to receive 61.5% of the vote compared with 38.6% for Croley, a projected Republican margin of 22.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Tennessee 6th District House election features Democrat Mike Croley and Republican Johnny Garrett. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Tennessee's 6th congressional district by 25.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Tennessee conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.