California 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 4th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Mike Thompson a 100% chance of winning this all-Democratic contest against Democrat Eric Jones. Pollsmax projects Thompson to receive 100% of the vote in this all-Democratic race. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 4th District House election features Democrats Mike Thompson and Eric Jones. Incumbent Representative Mike Thompson is seeking reelection to a fifteenth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won California's 4th congressional district by 11.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.