California 392026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 39th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 39th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Mark Takano a 99.3% chance of defeating Republican Steve Manos. Pollsmax projects Takano to receive 62.4% of the vote compared with 37.7% for Manos, a projected Democratic margin of 24.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 39th District House election features Democrat Mark Takano and Republican Steve Manos. Incumbent Representative Mark Takano is seeking reelection to a eighth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won California's 39th congressional district by 1.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.