New York1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 New York 1st District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for New York's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat Chris Gallant and Republican Nick LaLota. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 New York 1st District House election features Democrat Chris Gallant and Republican Nick LaLota. Incumbent Representative Nick LaLota is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won New York's 1st congressional district by 6.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive New York seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. New York's 1st District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.