New York 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 New York 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New York 1st District House forecast currently gives Republican Nick LaLota a 74.4% chance of defeating Democrat Chris Gallant. Pollsmax projects LaLota to receive 51.7% of the vote compared with 48.4% for Gallant, a projected Republican margin of 3.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New York 1st District House election features Democrat Chris Gallant and Republican Nick LaLota. Incumbent Representative Nick LaLota is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won New York's 1st congressional district by 6.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive New York seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. New York's 1st District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.