California 152026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 15th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 15th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Kevin Mullin a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Charles Hoelter. Pollsmax projects Mullin to receive 78.3% of the vote compared with 21.8% for Hoelter, a projected Democratic margin of 56.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 15th District House election features Democrat Kevin Mullin and Republican Charles Hoelter. Incumbent Representative Kevin Mullin is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 15th congressional district by 18.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.