California15th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 California 15th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for California's 15th congressional district House election between Democrat Kevin Mullin and Republican Charles Hoelter. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 California 15th District House election features Democrat Kevin Mullin and Republican Charles Hoelter. Incumbent Representative Kevin Mullin is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 15th congressional district by 18.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- CA-15
- Democratic candidate
- Kevin Mullin
- Republican candidate
- Charles Hoelter
- Incumbent / open seat
- Kevin Mullin
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 70.0% D / 30.0% R
- Projected margin
- D +40.0
- Forecast odds
- 99.9% D / 0.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —