Idaho 12026 HOUSE POLLS
2026 Idaho 1st District House Forecast:
The Pollsmax 2026 Idaho 1st District House forecast currently gives Republican Russ Fulcher a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Kaylee Peterson. Pollsmax projects Fulcher to receive 73.4% of the vote compared with 26.7% for Peterson, a projected Republican margin of 46.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.
The 2026 Idaho 1st District House election features Democrat Kaylee Peterson and Republican Russ Fulcher. Incumbent Representative Russ Fulcher is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Idaho's 1st congressional district by 22.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- ID-1
- Democratic candidate
- Kaylee Peterson
- Republican candidate
- Russ Fulcher
- Incumbent / open seat
- Russ Fulcher
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 26.7% D / 73.4% R
- Projected margin
- R +46.7
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on September 30, 2026
- Polling average
- 26.3% D / 47.7% R
- Polling average margin
- R +21.3
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 30, 2026
- Polls included
- 2
- Latest poll
- Change Research (D) — July 30, 2026