Texas21st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Texas 21st District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Texas's 21st congressional district House election between Democrat Kristin Hook and Republican Mark Teixeira. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Texas 21st District House election features Democrat Kristin Hook and Republican Mark Teixeira. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 21st congressional district by 11.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- TX-21
- Democratic candidate
- Kristin Hook
- Republican candidate
- Mark Teixeira
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open seat
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 40.1% D / 60.0% R
- Projected margin
- R +19.9
- Forecast odds
- 1.5% D / 98.5% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —