California52nd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 California 52nd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for California's 52nd congressional district House election between Democrat Juan Vargas and Republican Jeff Belle. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 California 52nd District House election features Democrat Juan Vargas and Republican Jeff Belle. Incumbent Representative Juan Vargas is seeking reelection to a eighth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 52nd congressional district by 4.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- CA-52
- Democratic candidate
- Juan Vargas
- Republican candidate
- Jeff Belle
- Incumbent / open seat
- Juan Vargas
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 63.4% D / 36.7% R
- Projected margin
- D +26.7
- Forecast odds
- 99.5% D / 0.5% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —