California 522026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 52nd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 52nd District House forecast currently gives Democrat Juan Vargas a 99.6% chance of defeating Republican Jeff Belle. Pollsmax projects Vargas to receive 63.5% of the vote compared with 36.6% for Belle, a projected Democratic margin of 26.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 52nd District House election features Democrat Juan Vargas and Republican Jeff Belle. Incumbent Representative Juan Vargas is seeking reelection to a eighth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 52nd congressional district by 4.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.