California5th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 California 5th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for California's 5th congressional district House election between Democrat Michael Masuda and Republican Tom McClintock. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 California 5th District House election features Democrat Michael Masuda and Republican Tom McClintock. Incumbent Representative Tom McClintock is seeking reelection to a tenth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 5th congressional district by 19.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- CA-5
- Democratic candidate
- Michael Masuda
- Republican candidate
- Tom McClintock
- Incumbent / open seat
- Tom McClintock
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 44.8% D / 55.2% R
- Projected margin
- R +10.4
- Forecast odds
- 11.0% D / 89.0% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —