California 52026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 5th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 5th District House forecast currently gives Republican Tom McClintock a 88.5% chance of defeating Democrat Michael Masuda. Pollsmax projects McClintock to receive 55.1% of the vote compared with 44.9% for Masuda, a projected Republican margin of 10.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 5th District House election features Democrat Michael Masuda and Republican Tom McClintock. Incumbent Representative Tom McClintock is seeking reelection to a tenth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 5th congressional district by 19.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.