California32nd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 California 32nd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for California's 32nd congressional district House election between Democrat Brad Sherman and Republican Larry Thompson. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 California 32nd District House election features Democrat Brad Sherman and Republican Larry Thompson. Incumbent Representative Brad Sherman is seeking reelection to a sixteenth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 32nd congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- CA-32
- Democratic candidate
- Brad Sherman
- Republican candidate
- Larry Thompson
- Incumbent / open seat
- Brad Sherman
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 69.8% D / 30.2% R
- Projected margin
- D +39.6
- Forecast odds
- 99.9% D / 0.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —