California 322026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 32nd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 32nd District House forecast currently gives Democrat Brad Sherman a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Larry Thompson. Pollsmax projects Sherman to receive 68.6% of the vote compared with 31.4% for Thompson, a projected Democratic margin of 37.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 32nd District House election features Democrat Brad Sherman and Republican Larry Thompson. Incumbent Representative Brad Sherman is seeking reelection to a sixteenth term. This race is rated as solid Democratic. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.