California 322026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 32nd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 32nd District House forecast currently gives Democrat Brad Sherman a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Larry Thompson. Pollsmax projects Sherman to receive 69.9% of the vote compared with 30.2% for Thompson, a projected Democratic margin of 39.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 32nd District House election features Democrat Brad Sherman and Republican Larry Thompson. Incumbent Representative Brad Sherman is seeking reelection to a sixteenth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 32nd congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.