Terri Yarbrough Green
DEMOCRATIC
Pathologist
Arkansas1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Rick Crawford*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-AR)
2011 – Present
2026 Arkansas 1st District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Arkansas's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green and Republican Rick Crawford. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Arkansas 1st District House election features Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green and Republican Rick Crawford. Incumbent Representative Rick Crawford is seeking reelection to a ninth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Arkansas' 1st congressional district by 18.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- AR-1
- Democratic candidate
- Terri Yarbrough Green
- Republican candidate
- Rick Crawford
- Incumbent / open seat
- Rick Crawford
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 30.1% D / 70.0% R
- Projected margin
- R +39.9
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —