Arkansas 12026 HOUSE POLLS
2026 Arkansas 1st District House Forecast:
The Pollsmax 2026 Arkansas 1st District House forecast currently gives Republican Rick Crawford a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green. Pollsmax projects Crawford to receive 74.6% of the vote compared with 25.5% for Green, a projected Republican margin of 49.1 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.
The 2026 Arkansas 1st District House election features Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green and Republican Rick Crawford. Incumbent Representative Rick Crawford is seeking reelection to a ninth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Arkansas' 1st congressional district by 18.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- AR-1
- Democratic candidate
- Terri Yarbrough Green
- Republican candidate
- Rick Crawford
- Incumbent / open seat
- Rick Crawford
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 25.5% D / 74.6% R
- Projected margin
- R +49.1
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on September 30, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
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- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
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