Texas 222026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 22nd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 22nd District House forecast currently gives Republican Trever Nehls a 98.5% chance of defeating Democrat Marquette Greene-Scott. Pollsmax projects Nehls to receive 60% of the vote compared with 40.1% for Greene-Scott, a projected Republican margin of 19.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 22nd District House election features Democrat Marquette Greene-Scott and Republican Trever Nehls. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 22nd congressional district by 11.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.