Texas 222026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 22nd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 22nd District House forecast currently gives Republican Trever Nehls a 99.1% chance of defeating Democrat Marquette Greene-Scott. Pollsmax projects Nehls to receive 57.7% of the vote compared with 42.4% for Greene-Scott, a projected Republican margin of 15.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 22nd District House election features Democrat Marquette Greene-Scott and Republican Trever Nehls. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. This race is rated as solid Republican. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.