Minnesota 52026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Minnesota 5th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Minnesota 5th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Ilhan Omar a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican John Nagel. Pollsmax projects Omar to receive 77% of the vote compared with 23% for Nagel, a projected Democratic margin of 54 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Minnesota 5th District House election features Democrat Ilhan Omar and Republican John Nagel. Incumbent Representative Ilhan Omar is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Minnesota's 5th congressional district by 24.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.