Ohio 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Ohio 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Ohio 1st District House forecast currently gives Democrat Greg Landsman a 71.7% chance of defeating Republican Eric Conroy. Pollsmax projects Landsman to receive 51.5% of the vote compared with 48.6% for Conroy, a projected Democratic margin of 2.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Ohio 1st District House election features Democrat Greg Landsman and Republican Eric Conroy. Incumbent Representative Greg Landsman is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Ohio's 1st congressional district by 6.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Ohio seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Ohio's 1st District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Ohio conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.