Ohio1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 Ohio 1st District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Ohio's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat Greg Landsman and Republican Eric Conroy. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 Ohio 1st District House election features Democrat Greg Landsman and Republican Eric Conroy. Incumbent Representative Greg Landsman is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Ohio's 1st congressional district by 6.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Ohio seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Ohio's 1st District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Ohio conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.