Pennsylvania 162026 HOUSE POLLS
2026 Pennsylvania 16th District House Forecast:
The Pollsmax 2026 Pennsylvania 16th District House forecast currently gives Republican Mike Kelly a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Justin Wagner. Pollsmax projects Kelly to receive 65.4% of the vote compared with 34.7% for Wagner, a projected Republican margin of 30.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.
The 2026 Pennsylvania 16th District House election features Democrat Justin Wagner and Republican Mike Kelly. Incumbent Representative Mike Kelly is seeking reelection to a ninth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district by 9.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- PA-16
- Democratic candidate
- Justin Wagner
- Republican candidate
- Mike Kelly
- Incumbent / open seat
- Mike Kelly
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 34.7% D / 65.4% R
- Projected margin
- R +30.7
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on September 30, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
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