Pennsylvania 162026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Pennsylvania 16th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Pennsylvania 16th District House forecast currently gives Republican Mike Kelly a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Justin Wagner. Pollsmax projects Kelly to receive 63.7% of the vote compared with 36.4% for Wagner, a projected Republican margin of 27.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Pennsylvania 16th District House election features Democrat Justin Wagner and Republican Mike Kelly. Incumbent Representative Mike Kelly is seeking reelection to a ninth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district by 9.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.