Justin Wagner
DEMOCRATIC
Engineer
Pennsylvania16th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Mike Kelly*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-PA)
2011 – Present
2026 Pennsylvania 16th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district House election between Democrat Justin Wagner and Republican Mike Kelly. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Pennsylvania 16th District House election features Democrat Justin Wagner and Republican Mike Kelly. Incumbent Representative Mike Kelly is seeking reelection to a ninth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district by 9.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- PA-16
- Democratic candidate
- Justin Wagner
- Republican candidate
- Mike Kelly
- Incumbent / open seat
- Mike Kelly
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 34.7% D / 65.4% R
- Projected margin
- R +30.7
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —