Illinois 162026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Illinois 16th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Illinois 16th District House forecast currently gives Republican Darin LaHood a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Paul Nolley. Pollsmax projects LaHood to receive 72.9% of the vote compared with 27.1% for Nolley, a projected Republican margin of 45.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Illinois 16th District House election features Democrat Paul Nolley and Republican Darin LaHood. Incumbent Representative Darin LaHood is seeking reelection to a seventh term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Illinois' 16th congressional district by 9.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.