Paul Nolley
DEMOCRATIC
Nonprofit Executive
Illinois16th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Darin LaHood*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-IL)
2015 – Present
2026 Illinois 16th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Illinois's 16th congressional district House election between Democrat Paul Nolley and Republican Darin LaHood. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Illinois 16th District House election features Democrat Paul Nolley and Republican Darin LaHood. Incumbent Representative Darin LaHood is seeking reelection to a seventh term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Illinois' 16th congressional district by 9.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- IL-16
- Democratic candidate
- Paul Nolley
- Republican candidate
- Darin LaHood
- Incumbent / open seat
- Darin LaHood
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 30.0% D / 70.1% R
- Projected margin
- R +40.1
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —