California 512026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 51st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 51st District House forecast currently gives Democrat Sara Jacobs a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Ricardo Cabrera. Pollsmax projects Jacobs to receive 65% of the vote compared with 35.1% for Cabrera, a projected Democratic margin of 29.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 51st District House election features Democrat Sara Jacobs and Republican Ricardo Cabrera. Incumbent Representative Sara Jacobs is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 51st congressional district by 20.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.