California51st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 California 51st District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for California's 51st congressional district House election between Democrat Sara Jacobs and Republican Ricardo Cabrera. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 California 51st District House election features Democrat Sara Jacobs and Republican Ricardo Cabrera. Incumbent Representative Sara Jacobs is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 51st congressional district by 20.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- CA-51
- Democratic candidate
- Sara Jacobs
- Republican candidate
- Ricardo Cabrera
- Incumbent / open seat
- Sara Jacobs
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 65.0% D / 35.0% R
- Projected margin
- D +30.0
- Forecast odds
- 99.9% D / 0.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —