Utah 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Utah 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Utah 1st District House forecast currently gives Democrat Ben McAdams a 98.8% chance of defeating Republican Riley Owen. Pollsmax projects McAdams to receive 60.1% of the vote compared with 40% for Owen, a projected Democratic margin of 20.1 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Utah 1st District House election features Democrat Ben McAdams and Republican Riley Owen. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Utah's 1st congressional district by 27.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. Utah conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.