Utah1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Utah 1st District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Utah's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat Ben McAdams and Republican Riley Owen. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Utah 1st District House election features Democrat Ben McAdams and Republican Riley Owen. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Utah's 1st congressional district by 27.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. Utah conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- UT-1
- Democratic candidate
- Ben McAdams
- Republican candidate
- Riley Owen
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open seat
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 60.0% D / 40.1% R
- Projected margin
- D +19.9
- Forecast odds
- 98.6% D / 1.4% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —