Texas13th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Texas 13th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Texas's 13th congressional district House election between Democrat Mark Nair and Republican Ronny Jackson. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Texas 13th District House election features Democrat Mark Nair and Republican Ronny Jackson. Incumbent Representative Ronny Jackson is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 13th congressional district by 34.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- TX-13
- Democratic candidate
- Mark Nair
- Republican candidate
- Ronny Jackson
- Incumbent / open seat
- Ronny Jackson
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 30.0% D / 70.1% R
- Projected margin
- R +40.1
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —