New York17th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 New York 17th District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for New York's 17th congressional district House election between Democrat Cait Conley and Republican Mike Lawler. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 New York 17th District House election features Democrat Cait Conley and Republican Mike Lawler. Incumbent Representative Mike Lawler is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New York's 17th congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive New York seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. New York's 17th District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.