New York 172026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 New York 17th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New York 17th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Cait Conley a 68.2% chance of defeating Republican Mike Lawler. Pollsmax projects Conley to receive 51% of the vote compared with 49.1% for Lawler, a projected Democratic margin of 1.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New York 17th District House election features Democrat Cait Conley and Republican Mike Lawler. Incumbent Representative Mike Lawler is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New York's 17th congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive New York seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. New York's 17th District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.