New Mexico 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 New Mexico 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New Mexico 1st District House forecast currently gives Democrat Melanie Stansbury a 96.3% chance of defeating Republican Didi Okpareke. Pollsmax projects Stansbury to receive 58.9% of the vote compared with 41.2% for Okpareke, a projected Democratic margin of 17.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New Mexico 1st District House election features Democrat Melanie Stansbury and Republican Didi Okpareke. Incumbent Representative Melanie Stansbury is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New Mexico's 1st congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.