Melanie Stansbury*
DEMOCRATIC
US House of Representatives (D-NM)
2021 – Present
New Mexico1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Didi Okpareke
REPUBLICAN
Pharmacist
2026 New Mexico 1st District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for New Mexico's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat Melanie Stansbury and Republican Didi Okpareke. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 New Mexico 1st District House election features Democrat Melanie Stansbury and Republican Didi Okpareke. Incumbent Representative Melanie Stansbury is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New Mexico's 1st congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- NM-1
- Democratic candidate
- Melanie Stansbury
- Republican candidate
- Didi Okpareke
- Incumbent / open seat
- Melanie Stansbury
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 58.8% D / 41.2% R
- Projected margin
- D +17.6
- Forecast odds
- 96.5% D / 3.5% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —