Laura Gillen*
DEMOCRATIC
US House of Representatives (D-NY)
2025 – Present
New York4th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Jeanine Driscoll
REPUBLICAN
Hempstead Receiver of Taxes
2026 New York 4th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for New York's 4th congressional district House election between Democrat Laura Gillen and Republican Jeanine Driscoll. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 New York 4th District House election features Democrat Laura Gillen and Republican Jeanine Driscoll. Incumbent Representative Laura Gillen is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New York's 4th congressional district by 2.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Democratic in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- NY-4
- Democratic candidate
- Laura Gillen
- Republican candidate
- Jeanine Driscoll
- Incumbent / open seat
- Laura Gillen
- Forecast rating
- Likely D
- Projected vote
- 55.5% D / 44.6% R
- Projected margin
- D +10.9
- Forecast odds
- 89.7% D / 10.3% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —