New York 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 New York 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New York 4th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Laura Gillen a 89.9% chance of defeating Republican Jeanine Driscoll. Pollsmax projects Gillen to receive 55.6% of the vote compared with 44.4% for Driscoll, a projected Democratic margin of 11.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New York 4th District House election features Democrat Laura Gillen and Republican Jeanine Driscoll. Incumbent Representative Laura Gillen is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New York's 4th congressional district by 2.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Democratic in 2026.